The Probability of Success (and Why Stats Matter in CI)

I had a little fun with this cartoon—as I am a golfer (sort of) I know when my confidence level doesn’t match my stats!

I drew the boss standing over a putt, full of hope, when his LSS and CI Champion , AKA, caddie, reminds him of a sobering fact: “Your stats indicate the probability of you sinking this putt is… zero.”

Ouch.

Now, as golfers (and leaders), we’ve all been there—believing we’ve got a good shot, only to find out the numbers tell a very different story. That’s the power of data. It doesn’t care about how confident we feel. It cuts through wishful thinking and shows us the reality.

In Continuous Improvement, we often hear the phrase: “What gets measured gets improved.” But too often, teams want to skip the measuring part and jump straight to solutions. It’s like lining up to sink a putt without ever looking at your putting average. You may get lucky once in a while, but sustained improvement doesn’t come from luck—it comes from understanding your stats.

Data tells a story:

• Where we’re performing well

• Where we’re consistently missing the mark

• And most importantly, where our efforts will have the biggest impact

Without it, we’re just guessing. And guessing is not a strategy for improvement.

So whether you’re on the golf course or in the boardroom, let the numbers guide you. They might not always tell you what you want to hear—but they’ll always tell you what you need to know to improve.

Now, tell me—when was the last time the stats surprised you?